Colmar Brunton has been running the 1 NEWS poll for more than 20 years. We are New Zealand’s most transparent pollsters when it comes to our results and the methods we employ.
Over recent General Elections the 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll has consistently been close to the final election result.
For full details of our most recent poll and our poll method you can download the full report below. The full report is released on this website 48 hours after the results are aired by TVNZ.
A full description of the method is included in the full report.
Our website is updated with the latest poll report and infographic 48 hours after the results are announced on 1 NEWS.
In the meantime, you can check our Twitter feed @colmarbruntonnz or the 1 NEWS website (https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news) for summaries of the results.
Yes, from 2018 the 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll surveys 500 eligible voters via random digit dialling of mobile phones and 500 via random digit dialling of landlines.
You can see the exact questions we ask in the full report, which is available to download above.
It is important to consider the margin of error when reading poll results. The maximum sampling error for the 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll party support results is approximately ± 3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%.
Sometimes poll results are compared to actual election outcomes to gauge their accuracy. It’s important to remember that the poll results are indicative only of trends in party support because the data does not take into account the effects of non-voting. They therefore should not be used to predict the outcome of an election. The poll provides a snapshot in time of where the electorate’s preferences lie.
Over recent General Elections, the 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll has consistently been close to the final election result.
The final poll leading up to the 2017 General Election gave National 46% of the party vote and Labour 37%. The final result saw National secure 44.4% of the party vote and Labour 36.9%.
It also had the Green Party at 8%, New Zealand First at 4.9% and The Opportunities Party on 2.3%. The final result of the election gave the Green Party 6.3%, New Zealand First 7.2% and The Opportunities Party 2.4%.
The data does not take into account the effects of non-voting and therefore cannot be used to predict the outcome of an election. Undecided voters, non-voters, and those who refuse to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are therefore only indicative of trends in party support.
Party support results are based only on those who claim to be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote.
A random telephone survey (using mobile and landline numbers) means we can potentially survey almost anyone in the country. In contrast, online surveys are conducted with groups of people who have agreed to answer surveys in advance for rewards. While online surveys are a useful tool for researchers, we believe telephone continues to be the most robust method for measuring voter intention.
You will have to wait and see…
We don’t want to give anyone the opportunity to sway the results before we conduct a poll, so we do not publicly announce our polling dates.
Eligible New Zealand voters.
Each poll is taken from a nationwide sample of around 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters.
The maximum sampling error is approximately ± 3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points respectively at the 95% confidence level.
Of course we do! You can view it here.
The poll is conducted by random dialling of both mobile and landline telephones in New Zealand, so you will just have to be patient and wait for the phone to ring one day…
But we’d still love to hear from you. Colmar Brunton is always running interesting research on a range of topics. Join our panel by clicking here and have your say. You can even earn Fly Buys points!
If we have not answered your question you can get in touch with the poll team by email at onenewspoll@colmarbrunton.co.nz. We will get back to you as soon as we can.
