It is important to consider the margin of error when reading poll results. The maximum sampling error for the 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll party support results is approximately ± 3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%.
Sometimes poll results are compared to actual election outcomes to gauge their accuracy. It’s important to remember that the poll results are indicative only of trends in party support because the data does not take into account the effects of non-voting. They therefore should not be used to predict the outcome of an election. The poll provides a snapshot in time of where the electorate’s preferences lie.
Over recent General Elections, the 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll has consistently been close to the final election result.
The final poll leading up to the 2017 General Election gave National 46% of the party vote and Labour 37%. The final result saw National secure 44.4% of the party vote and Labour 36.9%.
It also had the Green Party at 8%, New Zealand First at 4.9% and The Opportunities Party on 2.3%. The final result of the election gave the Green Party 6.3%, New Zealand First 7.2% and The Opportunities Party 2.4%.